Why do most new technologies fail?

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jrineakter01
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Joined: Sun Dec 22, 2024 6:36 am

Why do most new technologies fail?

Post by jrineakter01 »

…or rather, why don’t they reach the general market? Why do they have explosive initial visibility and most of them fall by the wayside?

It is a recurring theme in our history, but if we think about what has happened in the last 10 years, we see that it is happening more and more frequently. As the speed at which innovations emerge increases, the frequency with which we encounter these cases increases.

When an innovation moves from innovators to early adopters, the market goes crazy and we start to consider its potential applications, consultancies and funds go crazy, the media and blogs eager for news multiply its effect, etc. and we have cases as famous as the metaverse.

In this blog I have used the adoption curve of new
telegram usa number technologies, giving examples of innovations that have, or have not, reached the general market. Here are some examples:


I could put several more with failed social networks or other technologies.

The reality is that most innovations fail to jump the chasm of the adoption curve for new technologies.

Innovation adoption curve
Innovation adoption curve

How to ensure the success of a new technology launch
You know that nothing is certain in this life, but we can try to answer the question of why some work better than others.

In this sense, I liked Tom Fishburne 's reflection on the launch of the Apple Vision Pro , because I think it comes close to my vision on the correct way for companies to adopt a technology .

These innovations often present us with a “new world” separate from the current one. They suggest practical future applications, but these are still in the future. Before they can be achieved, many steps must be taken, including the complete development of the new technology and its acceptance by the market.

What's different about the launch of Apple Vision Pro glasses?
Unlike many failed new technologies, this release has some interesting features:

Image

Integration with Apple's current ecosystem : This is seen as a way to get more out of Apple's current ecosystem rather than as a “revolution in isolation.”
Segmentation : early adopters should be the most loyal customers of the brand, it is not launched into the gaming market to compete with other glasses. This does not mean that they cannot be used for gaming, but this positions them in a different and relevant way for the market.
The differentiating characteristics of the product and these two key points offer the Apple Vision Pro a much more solid starting point to have a greater chance of success than the rest.

It is true that the market knows this type of device better than it knew cognitive artificial intelligence, for example. I believe that each innovation has its launch cycles (more or less long) and that they must find a way to jump over the abyss of the adoption curve of new technologies.

We have “innovations” that have been around for decades and have not succeeded, and others that do so much more quickly. My recommendation is to always analyze them from the point of view of the value they can bring to our daily lives and not let ourselves be blinded by their potential possibilities.
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