As credit contraction still exists, the market has not escaped the volatile situation, but when the periodic pressure is relatively large, positive policy changes will lead to stronger expectations and promote a market rebound. market sentiment will often return to volatility after being overdrawn, and the cycle will repeat. As the private sector is still deleveraging, fiscal policy is crucial to judging the market rhythm. We can focus on two indicators: one is government bond issuance in social financing, and the other is broad fiscal spending. In terms of sectors, the "dumbbell" structure with both offensive and defensive capabilities that we recommended at the end of last year has also been effective this year. Hong Kong stocks have shown two clues in terms of industry allocation : stable returns and new growth points .
Looking ahead to , credit cycle and finance will still be the key to sweden phone number list judging market trends. After all, the main source of current problems is still credit contraction. Looking ahead, we believe that under the "reality constraints" of high leverage, interest rates and exchange rates and the "stresstype" response function of policy, there will be incremental stimulus, but excessive expectations are not realistic unless external pressure increases. Therefore, although growth and profits are guaranteed, the extent is limited , and the market has not completely escaped from the volatile pattern. The shift in structure to "gradually deploying on the left side of the depression and making moderate profits on the right side of the excitement" seems to be a more effective strategy. In terms of industry allocation, it is recommended to focus on three categories: industry clearance, policy support, and stable returns.